Changing fertility patterns and policies in the third world.

Different patterns of fertilty transition are apparent in developing countries. Theories of fertility decline are appropriate because demographic analysis has become situation specific rather than general. Pretransition fertility patterns and the onset of decline are provided. Fertility transition patterns are also supplied, including a regional overview for Latin America, east and Southeast Asia, South Asia, West Asia and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa. The specialized cases of China, India, Bangladesh, Thailand and Indonesia, and Brazil are also presented. The fertility determinant models of Bongaarts, Davis and Blake, Hobcraft and Little, Ryder, and Henry are used as examples of proximate determinant models. Data collection was possible on a grand scale with contraceptive knowledge, attitudes, and practice (KAP) surveys and the World Fertility Surveys and Demographic and Health Surveys. Criticism has focused on the scope of these surveys which provide at best proximate determinants and differentiate fertility by standard socioeconomic factors. Data are also obtained on small populations from piecing together records and from quasi-anthropological fieldwork. Historical demography relies on family reconstitution. Longitudinal studies are few in number. The largest and most effective fieldwork station is at Matlab in Bangladesh. Caldwell has provided anthropological methods applicable to fertility study and makes use of teamwork. In Latin America, fertility has fallen by 40% since the 1960s. Bolivia, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Haiti have changed very little. Taiwan and South Korea provide examples of economic growth with equity in East and Southeast Asia. In heterogenous South Asia, decline has been slow and uneven. West Asia and North Africa have high fertility with the exception of Egypt which is in the early stages of transition. The smallest declines are found in sub-Saharan Africa, and are complicated by the AIDS epidemic.