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Changes in Surface Temperature in the Arctic: Accuracy of Model Reproduction and Probabilistic Prediction for the Near Future

Authors
  • Sporyshev, P. V.1
  • Kattsov, V. M.1
  • Gulev, S. K.2
  • 1 Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, St. Petersburg, 194021, Russia , St. Petersburg (Russia)
  • 2 Russian Academy of Sciences, Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Moscow, 117997, Russia , Moscow (Russia)
Type
Published Article
Journal
Doklady Earth Sciences
Publisher
Pleiades Publishing
Publication Date
Apr 01, 2018
Volume
479
Issue
2
Pages
503–506
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1134/S1028334X18040189
Source
Springer Nature
License
Yellow

Abstract

The abilities of an ensemble of present-day global climate models are analyzed during modeling of evolution of the Arctic surface temperature over land including spatial consistency between the modeled and observed data. These results are the basis for probabilistic regional prediction of variation in the surface air temperature for the near future (2021–2040).

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