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Peak-Load Pricing and Reliability under Uncertainty.



This paper develops the welfare foundations of peak-load pricing under uncertainty, building on Brown and Johnson (1969), Crew and Kleindorfer (1976), and Chao (1983). The context is that of a welfare-maximizing public enterprise facing uncertain and nondeferrable demand, and uncertain supply. The paper first describes various elements of outage cost, including rationing costs, disruption costs, and surplus losses due to unsatisfied demand. Exact welfare-optimal results are then derived, in contrast to the earlier approximations by Turvey and Anderson (1977) and Chao (1983). The results are generalized to take account of diverse technologies and multiple planning periods, and their implications for utility pricing and investment in an integrated resource planning context are discussed. Copyright 1993 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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