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Can ecological niche models be used to accurately predict the distribution of invasive insects? A case study of Hyphantria cunea in China.

Authors
  • Wen, Xuanye1
  • Fang, Guofei1
  • Chai, Shouquan1
  • He, Chuanjie1
  • Sun, Shouhui2
  • Zhao, Guanghua3
  • Lin, Xiao1
  • 1 Center for Biological Disaster Prevention and Control National Forestry and Grassland Administration Shenyang China. , (China)
  • 2 College of Forestry Shenyang Agricultural University Shenyang China. , (China)
  • 3 College of Life Sciences Shanxi Normal University Taiyuan China. , (China)
Type
Published Article
Journal
Ecology and Evolution
Publisher
Wiley (John Wiley & Sons)
Publication Date
Mar 01, 2024
Volume
14
Issue
3
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1002/ece3.11159
PMID: 38487749
Source
Medline
Keywords
Language
English
License
Unknown

Abstract

In recent decades, ecological niche models (ENMs) have been widely used to predict suitable habitats for species. However, for invasive organisms, the prediction accuracy is unclear. In this study, we employed the most widely used maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and ensemble model (EM) Biomod2 and verified the practical effectiveness of the ENM in predicting the distribution areas of invasive insects based on the true occurrence of Hyphantria cunea in China. The results showed that when only limited data of invasive areas were used, the two ENMs could not effectively predict the distribution of suitable habitats of H. cunea, although the use of global data can greatly improve the prediction accuracy of ENMs. When analyzing the same data, Biomod2's prediction accuracy was significantly better than that of MaxEnt. For long-term predictions, the area of suitable habitat predicted by the ENMs was much greater than the occurrence area; for short-term predictions, the accuracy of the predicted area was significantly improved. Under the current conditions, the area of suitable habitat for H. cunea in China is 118 × 104 km2, of which 59.32% is moderately or highly suitable habitat. Future climate change could significantly increase the suitable habitat area of H. cunea in China, and the predicted area of suitable habitats in all climate scenarios exceeded 355 × 104 km2, accounting for 36.98% of the total land area in China. This study demonstrates the use of ENMs to study invasive insects and provides a reference for the management of H. cunea in China. © 2024 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

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