ÖZETYapay gübreler, tarımda verimliliği arttırabi/menin en önemli koşullarından.bırisidir. Yapay gubre kullanımımn planlanabi/mesi için gerekli araçlardan en 6nem!isi sistemi etkileyen faktörlerin bilinmesi ve bu faktörlerin etkilerinin yön ve derecelerininsaptanmasıdır. Bu çalışmanın bulgularına göre Türkiye'de yapay gübreistemini etkileyen en önemli faktörler gübre fiyatı, tarımsal gelir ııe teknolojikdeğişmed[r~ Fiyatta gözlenecek % 10 luk bir artış kısa dönemde gübre istemini% 14 kadar azaltırken, gelirdeki % lO'luk artış %8 kadar yükselecektir. Fiyat vegelirin uzun dönem elastikiyetleri ise sırasıyla -1.48 ve 0.77 olarak bu/~lmuItur.Yapılan öngörülerde 1982 yılmda istem miktarı 9-10 mi/yon ton ve 1985 yılı istemmiktarı da 12.5-14 milyon ton olarak hesaplanmıştır. Ocak 198D'de gübre fiyat-:larına. yapılan ortalama %625 lik zammm istem üzerindeki etkilerinin giderilebilmesiiçin. tarımsal gelirin kısa donemde %208, uzun dönemde de % 268 kadar arttırılması gerekmektedir.SUMMARYTHE DEMAND FOR CHEMICAL FERTILIZERS IN TURKEYAgriculture can contribute to economic development in these three ways;by transfering the labor to other sectors; creating a market for industrialproducts;and iproving export potentials of the country. In order for the agriculture to improvethe export potentials of the country, agricutural production must be sufficientenough to provide a surplus after meetİİ1g the domestİc needs. Productivity must beimproved to increase theagricultural production. Undoubtably, chemical fertilizerstake the most important plaçe among the inputs that can help-improve theproucdivity. The most important point to keep in mind in making plans aboutthe use of cheırucal fetilizers is the knowladge about the factors that determine thedemand for chemical fertilizers, and the directian and the scale of the effecets ofthese factors. In this study; these factors have been examined, near-future demandhas been determined and probable consequences of political decisions <).nd the waysof realizing the objectives of such deecisions have been analyzed.This study cavers the period of 1960-1977. Data have been coJlected throughthe Government Agencies such as The state Planning Organization, State Instituteof Statistİcs, Ministry of Agriculture and Agricultural SuppIy Organizationof Turkey. In the study, simp1e regression analyses based on time series have beenused. The usage of chemical fertilizet s in the previous year has been included iİı theequations to enhance the dynamism of the model in accordance with the Nedove'ssuggestions. The study constists of four parts which cover the demands for total,nitrogenous, phosphorous, and pothas chemical fertilizers. The dependent variablein the regression analyses is the demand for the different groups of chemicaluertilizers indicated above. independent variables that vary according todifferent groups are shown in the foollowing table.14The relations with the highest F (the significance level of the equations as awlıole) and R2 (The paıt of the variance in the depedent variable that is accountedfor) vaiues with significant coeffidents at 20 %level have been used in the analyses.The levels of variance in the short-run elasticities of the variables in the relationsare shown in the folIowing table. The results about the pothas fertilizershave not been found significant at 20 % leveL.The correction coefficients which are obtained by substracting the coefficientsof oneyear lagged dependent variables from i have been found 0.75-0.79for total, 0.65-0.90 for nitrogenous, 0.56-0.58 for phosphorous fertilizers.The most importent factors that affect the demand for chemical fertilizersare the price, income and the time. Projections have been made based on theassumption that the price and income would increase at an avarage rate for theperiod covered by this study. But priees have been incrased. at an extraordinaryleve! at the begining of 1980. The effects of these price increases have been refinedby steepwise regression method and the corrections have been made in the projectionsfor future demands. According fo the corrected projections, in 1983 whenthe Forth Five Year Development Plan ends, the demand will be 5.3-5.5 millionton for nitogeneous fertilizers, 5.5-5.9 miJion tons fOf phosphorous fertilizers(10-11.5 'Tons total).The prices of chemica! fertilizers are under government control! in Turkey.Therefore it can be used as a tool for subsidies a transfer of resomees amongsectors. In fact, in. 1980 the prices have been increased at a level as high as 769% and 32 billion TL.will be transfered to industrial sector from agriculture.AgricuItural income should increase by 208 %in the short run and by 268 %inthe Jong run so the level of demand in 1979 can be maintained.The fol1owing recomendations can be made abut the chemka! fertiliters:I) An income policy that wi1l compansate the negative affeets of high priceincreases should be fallowed.2) A parity should be established between the prices of ehemical fertilizersand agricultural produets so as to encourage the use. of chemieal fertilizers.3) A special fund should be set up to obtain chemical fertilizers the raw-materials,and' s<;> eliminate eost increases due to interests charged by the banks.4) Credits for fertilizers and the distribution system must be made more efficient.5) Small agricultural farms should be protected by providing asistance so thattheycan use chemical fertiliters. .6) Existing fertilizer plants should be oparated at full-capacity.IS7) Vertical integraton should be established in the fertilizer ındust-ry andthe production of domestic row-materials must be given a high priority.