Abstract The hull girder moment capacity of a very large crude oil carrier (VLCC) called Energy Concentration (EC), for which many benchmark studies have been carried out using the simple progressive collapse method (SPCM), is predicted. In this study, three approaches are used to represent the load-shortening behavior, so-called average compressive strength, of a stiffened panel, comprising the hull section: 1) kinematic displacement theory (KDT); 2) nonlinear finite element analysis (FEA); and 3) simple formulas in the common structural rule (CSR) for tankers. Load-shortening curves for various kinds of stiffened panels in EC are compared for five different scenarios with variations of load-shortening approaches and initial imperfections. In order to verify the effect of load-shortening on the prediction accuracy of the hull girder moment-carrying capacity, load-shortening curves are imported into an SPCM-based in-house program called Ultimate Moment Analysis of Damaged Ships (UMADS). Comparison of the hull girder ultimate strength for general heeling conditions, including hogging and sagging conditions, reveals that the load-shortening curves significantly affect the hull girder moment-carrying capacities. Based on our comparison of these capacities with other benchmark results, it is concluded that nonlinear FEA provided the most conservative results, KDT provided the second most conservative results, and the CSR formulas predicted the upper bound.