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What we have learned about forecasting and planning

Authors
Journal
Futures
0016-3287
Publisher
Elsevier
Publication Date
Volume
20
Issue
4
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1016/0016-3287(88)90061-4

Abstract

Abstract It is rare for long-range forecasters and futurists to outlast their forecasts. When they do, they must inevitably be prepared to face questions about their track records. What most people want to know is how well one has done in terms of ‘hits’ or ‘misses’. It does little good to comment on the futility of ‘point’ forecasting—particularly for 10-year periods—or on the greater importance of identifying and monitoring critical factors that may shape a forecast. Nor does it seem to help to point out that all forecasts are based on the best currently available information and that new information will almost certainly be used to modify a forecast. So this article presents some hits and misses achieved by the Institute for the Future (IFTF) and uses the experience from these forecasts to distil some lessons learned. They are summarized as 10 do's and don'ts of forecasting and planning.

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