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Prediction accuracy and the Canadian federal budget

Authors
Journal
Futures
0016-3287
Publisher
Elsevier
Publication Date
Volume
16
Issue
5
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1016/0016-3287(84)90082-x
Disciplines
  • Political Science

Abstract

Abstract It is generally recognized that governments cannot accurately predict annual budget balances. This paper examines the record of ‘fiscal marksmanship’ for the Canadian Federal Government for the period 1949–1978 and attempts to explain why significant errors in tax, expenditure and budget result outcomes occurred. Using a measure of inequality, errors are classified into three distinct categories to isolate random as compared to consistent errors. These errors are then related to a series of exogenous shocks on the economy and unexpected policy impacts.

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