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Analyse et modélisation stochastiques des trajectoires de véhicules en virages en vue de la construction des indicateurs de risque : Applications au diagnostic d'infrastructures routières

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Portail Documentaire MADIS
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Abstract

This paper discusses a new approach to vehicle trajectories modeling starting from the experimental trajectories. Firstly, we use an experimental design in order to obtain discrete observations of representative trajectories. Then, we will use clustering method in order to distribute observed trajectories in several class of trajectories. Each identified class is governed by an unic stochastic process. Afterwards, stochastic identification techniques will be used to model each process. Then, this original procedure of modeling coupled to reliability engineer analyzes allowed to estimate a probability of failure for each identified class of trajectories. Lastly, we developed trajectories recognition model in order to assign each trajectory to a class and thus to an already known security level.

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