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Global Agriculture in a Rapidly Changing Environment: Needed Policies for Future Food and Well-being (PowerPoint)

  • Agricultural Science
  • Ecology
  • Economics
  • Geography


Asymmetric Externalities in Groundwater Extraction Global Agriculture in a Rapidly Changing Environment “Impact of Increasing Volatile Prices on World Food Markets” Panel, 85th USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum 26-27 February 2009, Crystal Gateway Marriott, Arlington, Virginia Needed Policies for Future Food & Well-being Siwa Msangi Environment and Production Technology Division, IFPRI INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 2Page 2  Socio-economic growth – rising incomes and demands for meat (and the necessary feed grains to supply it)  Environmental shocks – increasing variability in climate facing agriculture  Policy drivers  Steady decline in cereal stocks  Unilateral trade actions (bans & export taxes)  Direct effect of energy prices on agriculture & energy policies which have implications for agriculture Various ‘drivers of change’ underlie global trends in food prices A number of factors at work which determine changing conditions in global food markets INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 3Page 3  Socio-economic growth and demographic change (population and pc income didn’t surge overnight in China and India – neither did their consumption)  Longer-term shifts in climatic conditions  Slowing yield growth (relative to demand growth) Some drivers are ‘fast-moving’, while others are slow….. Slower-moving drivers – which play into long-term  Short-term environmental shocks which cause seasonal losses of harvest/yield (floods, droughts)  Rapid increase in energy demand and prices – and the growth of crop-based biofuels production Faster-moving drivers of change INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 4Page 4 Sorting between the long/short term factors and fast/slow-moving drivers Long-term Market speculation Short-term Slow-moving Yield growth/ agricultural productivity Climate variability & weather shocks Monetary ap

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