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Chocs externes et ajustements des taux de change réels européens

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  • F15 - Economic Integration
  • F31 - Foreign Exchange
  • C11 - Bayesian Analysis: General
  • C01 - Econometrics
  • Economics


This paper asks whether external shocks (U.S. interest rates, U.S. industrial production, U.S. stocks prices and world industrial material price) have asymmetric effects on European relative prices (real exchange rates). On 1979-1993 period, the paper finds that two groups of countries may be distinguished; on one side Germany, France, Belgium and Netherlands; on another side, United Kingdom, Italy and Spain. The results imply misalignments in European real exchange rates when external shocks arise. Also, Europe is not an optimum currency area.

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