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Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation

Authors
Journal
International Journal of Forecasting
0169-2070
Publisher
Elsevier
Volume
30
Issue
1
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.07.010
Keywords
  • Subjective Density Forecasts
  • First Moments
  • Bayesian Learning

Abstract

Abstract We consider whether survey respondents’ probability distributions, reported as histograms, provide reliable and coherent point predictions, when viewed through the lens of a Bayesian learning model. We argue that a role remains for eliciting directly-reported point predictions in surveys of professional forecasters.

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