Affordable Access

Publisher Website

A simulation modelling approach to forecast establishment and spread ofBactrocerafruit flies

Authors
Journal
Ecological Modelling
0304-3800
Publisher
Elsevier
Publication Date
Volume
227
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.11.026
Keywords
  • Simulation Modelling
  • Spatio-Temporal Model
  • Biosecurity Management
  • Australia
  • Bactrocerafruit Fly
  • Verification
  • Validation
Disciplines
  • Design
  • Ecology
  • Geography

Abstract

Abstract This paper reports on the design, construction and testing of a novel simulation model for the establishment and spread of fruit fly. The model permits the investigation of spatio-temporal development of a fruit fly outbreak under variable environmental conditions and taking account of the location, availability and suitability of preferred food, and of the existence of obstacles to spread. Implementation of the simulator is designed to make it suitable for use at various levels of outbreak management and biosecurity. Initial efforts at validating the predictions against actual historical outbreak data indicate that the simulator could be an useful tool to support decision making.

There are no comments yet on this publication. Be the first to share your thoughts.