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Recent long-wave theories:A critical survey

Authors
Journal
Futures
0016-3287
Publisher
Elsevier
Publication Date
Volume
13
Issue
4
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1016/0016-3287(81)90141-5
Disciplines
  • Social Sciences

Abstract

Abstract The author gives a critical overview of some recent long-wave theories, which, although not complete, does seek to diminish the present confusion in the literature and to emphasise the complementary character of the different approaches. A classification scheme is developed, based on the alternating scarcity and abundance of production factors in the upswing and downswing phases of the long wave. In this way theories have been classified as: those which consider the role of innovation (ie entrepreneurship) as crucial (Schumpeter and Mensch); the capital theories (Mandel and Forrester); the labour theory (Freeman); and the raw materials and food-stuffs theory (Rostow). The importance of institutional and social changes is emphasised.

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