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Information Disclosure, Consumer Search and the Choice of Tenants

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  • Economics

Abstract

Paper Louw Surveys and forecasting industrial property demand 1 Surveys and forecasting industrial property demand Erik Louw* Paper presented at 18th Annual Conference of the European Real Estate Society Eindhoven (the Netherlands), 15th-18th June 2011. * OTB Research Institute for the Built Environment. Delft University of Technology. P.O. Box 5030, 2600 GA Delft. Email: [email protected] 2 1. Introduction In spatial planning and commercial property markets demand forecasts are an important tool to make policy and investment decisions. However, in real estate research there is only limited attention for forecasts although in many textbooks there is a chapter about forecasts. In some cases modelling and forecasting is combined (see for instance: Brooks & Tsolacos, 2010). However, modelling and forecasting are often different techniques and may involve different attributes. What is of interest to make a forecast may not be of interest to model or vice versa. From the scattered property research literature about forecast (for an overview see Louw, 2010), it seem that there are two types of forecasts. Those based on surveys and those based on econometric models. Surveys are often used to give short-term forecast for the short term (3-5 years), while model based forecasts are used to long term forecasts (10 year). The assumption behind this is that long-term forecast should include structural changes in demand, which are difficult to include in surveys. Often surveys are used to forecast the development of the current business cycle. Although both models and survey information are used to make planning and investment decisions, often there is hardly any research on the accuracy of these forecasts. This is particularly true for the long-term forecasts. Regarding the short-term forecasts there has be

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