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Chapter 10 Belief networks: Generating the feared dislocations

DOI: 10.1016/s0167-8892(02)80011-2
  • Computer Science


Publisher Summary This chapter illustrates a general computational means of generating impressions of the target futures. Models used in climate change studies, although based on highly qualified scientific knowledge; however, involve varying, partly expert, assumptions. The chapter investigates several issues: the most important variables and variable clusters, the relative importance of different variables among geographical regions, and further development of the methodology. The feared dislocations and development pathways, chances, threats, and opportunities that will follow from the changing world cannot be detected from data alone, not by using structurally fixed simulation models alone, not with expert judgment alone, but through a balanced synthesis of all these constituents. The available computer simulation models would help us quite a bit, of course, but rather as sources of reference information, not as final, usable products.

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