Quarterly Economic Commentary, December 1999

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Quarterly Economic Commentary, December 1999

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Q U A R T E R LY E C O N O M I C C O M M E N TA R Y December 1999 DAVID DUFFY JOHN FITZ GERALD KIERAN KENNEDY AND DIARMAID SMYTH The forecasts in this Commentary are based on data available by early December 1999 Special Articles: THE IRISH ECONOMY: THEN, NOW AND NEXT by T.J. Baker A REVIEW OF EARNINGS TRENDS IN THE IRISH ECONOMY SINCE 1987 by J.J. Sexton B. Nolan B. McCormick Copies of this paper may be obtained from The Economic and Social Research Institute (Limited Company No. 18269), (Registered Office) 4 Burlington Road, Dublin 4. Price IR£35.00 (€44.44) per copy or IR£145 (€184.11) per year, (including Medium-Term Review, 1999-2005) John Fitz Gerald and Kieran Kennedy are Research Professors, David Duffy is an Assistant Research Officer and Diarmaid Smyth is a Research Assistant of The Economic and Social Research Institute. The Commentary has been accepted for publication by the Institute, which is not responsible for either the content or the views expressed therein. T.J. Baker (recently retired from editorship of the Quarterly Economic Commentary) was a Senior Research Officer; J.J. Sexton and B. Nolan are Research Professors and B. McCormick is a Research Assistant of The Economic and Social Research Institute. CONTENTS Page SUMMARY 5 FORECAST NATIONAL ACCOUNTS 6 COMMENTARY The International Economy 8 General 8 The US Economy 8 The European Economy 9 The UK Economy 10 The Rest of the World 11 The Context for Ireland 12 The Domestic Economy 13 General 13 Exports 14 Stocks 15 Investment 16 Consumption 16 Final Demand 18 Imports 18 Balance of Payments 19 Gross National Product 21 Agriculture 21 Industry 21 Services 22 Employment 22 Incomes 25 Consumer Prices 27 Public Finances 28 Interest Rates 29 General Assessment 29 SPECIAL ARTICLES The Irish Economy, Then, Now and Next 35 A Review of

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