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War or Cooperation? – The Role of Water in the Future of the Jordan River Basin

Lunds universitet/Kulturgeografi
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  • The Levant
  • Water Scarcity
  • War
  • Cooperation
  • Scenario Planning
  • Israel
  • The Middle East
  • Lebanon
  • Jordan
  • Palestine
  • The Jordan River
  • Syria
  • Social Sciences
  • Engineering


The water scarcity and its outcomes have been investigated by many researchers during several decades. This is another research that, opposed to most of the publications existing, focuses on the next forty years from 2010. In this thesis I investigate three outcomes of water scarcity, with regard to the Levant and the Jordan River: war, international cooperation, and a third path which is that each country for themselves tries to solve the water scarcity by producing or importing water. In order to do such investigation I have used a scenario planning method with both quantitative and qualitative approaches. The qualitative approach includes an interview with a professor in water engineering. The conclusions of this master thesis are that the water scarcity situation would get worse because of increasing demand. However it would not result in war or serious cooperation between the Israelis and the Arabs. Nor will there be any war between the Arab countries over water. The cooperation between the Arabs themselves will more or less increase to meet the increasing power of Israel in the region.

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