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경제통합의 동태적 경로추정: EU와 동아시아의 비교를 중심으로

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  • 수정된 중력모형(Modified Gravity Model)
  • 경제통합(Economic Integration)
  • 동태적 경로(Dynamic Path)
  • Hausman-Taylor
  • Ar(1)속성을 갖는 Gls(Generalised Least Square)
  • 동아시아(East)
  • Eu
  • 관세동맹(Custom Union)
  • 자유무역협정(Free Trade Area)
  • Design


This paper examines whether the established EU's bilateral FTAs are outward-oriented based on a gravity model estimation. It is well known that there are some endogeneity biases when it comes to measure the effectiveness of RTA in terms of its trade diversion effects. Our estimation strategy is designed to avoid these endogeneity biases and so called unobservable omitted variable bias as well. Therefore, three estimation experiments were used, i.e., fixed effect combined with time dummy and fixed effects with 'time-varying country dummies' and finally country pair fixed effect combined by 'time-varying country dummies' to measure the trade diversion effects of 18 established EU's bilateral FTAs. Our estimation results show that 18 established EU's bilateral FTAs seems to be outward-oriented. If one considers the magnitude of regression coefficient, the 3rd countries traded 9%∼14% more with the partners of EU's bil;ateral FTAs. In addition, 18 established EU's bilateral FTAs, as a whole, turned out to be more outward-oriented than the existing 13 important FTAs did. Our result also implies that the 5th EU widening process seems to be slightly outward-oriented. However, 18 established EU's bilateral FTAs shows more outward-oriented than the 5th EU widening process as well.

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