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Conditions under which econometric models will outperform naive models

Authors
Journal
International Journal of Forecasting
0169-2070
Publisher
Elsevier
Publication Date
Volume
3
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1016/0169-2070(87)90041-0

Abstract

Abstract Brodie and de Kluyver have reported empirical results in which simple naive models have produced forecasts as accurate as those derived from econometric models. I apply some recent theoretical results to show that these findings are plausible. I also suggest some general conditions under which econometric models will outperform naive models.

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