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Low structure imprecise predictive inference for Bayes' problem

  • Logic


This paper presents direct conditional imprecise probabilities for the number of successes in a finite number of future trials, given information about a finite number of past trials. A simple underlying process determining failures or successes is assumed, related to Bayes' postulate, and Hill's A(n) assumption is used. The results are related to the type of predictive inference known as low structure or black-box inference.

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