Abstract In situ catalytic upgrading of heavy oil and bitumen has been suggested and tested in the laboratory for utilization of heavy oil resources. Experimental observations have demonstrated potential, so this innovative recovery technique may have a role in the development of large resources of heavy oil and bitumen. Accurate analytical and numerical modelling is necessary in order to correctly interpret experimental measurements of the in situ upgrading, leading to a better understanding and design of field-scale processes. In this paper, we present modelling and parameter estimation for ultra-dispersed catalytic upgrading experiments conducted in a batch reactor. The Monte Carlo simulation technique was used to estimate the most appropriate reaction parameters. The combination of an analytical batch reactor model and the Monte Carlo simulation technique allows for the fast generation of a large number of upgrading experiment realizations. Comparisons of analytical modelling results with the experimental measurements of the upgrading experiments at different temperatures are in close agreement. Results reveal that ultra-dispersed catalytic upgrading in a batch reactor results in a fairly high residue conversion and can potentially increase the API gravity of the produced oil.