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It’s the Economy, Maybe: Economists Predict Presidential Winner

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Disciplines
  • Economics
  • Political Science

Abstract

Every four years, political-economic forecasters have their moment in the sun. Mostly economists by training, these analysts use statistical models to predict the winner of the presidential election on the basis of economic conditions. They collect economic data from past election years and they record who won those elections. Then they look at how the economy is doing during the current election year and make their predictions accordingly. This year, the models are predicting a Bush win in November.

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