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A mid-term prevision for the medical social services necessities

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Microsoft Word - 08_Petcu_final.doc A MID-TERM PREVISION FOR THE MEDICAL SOCIAL SERVICES NECESSITIES Prof. univ. dr. Nicoleta Petcu Prof. univ. dr. Bogdan Băcanu Transilvania University, Braşov Abstract: The paper presents a model of the correlation between the demographic factor’s variables and Romanian medical services system. Keywords: demographic factors; chronological series; statistical correlation. 1. Introduction Demographic phenomena and their time modification have as a consequence the continuous change of the population state, from the point of view of its number and structure. Population closely linked to other subsystems of the national economy, among which the medical subsystem, therefore it is one of the objects of the social- economic policies. In order to study the correlation between the demographic factor’s variables and those related to the necessities of the medical system we have to analyse the two components from the point of view of their evolution between 1994 and 2004. 2. The demographic factor and medical services Total population: throughout the eleven years of analysis the total population decreased by a medium percentage of 0,47% namely, in absolute value, a decrease of about 105.730 persons / year (Tab.1). Population by urban and rural area: the urban population decreased by a medium percentage of 0,43% and the rural one decreased by 0.52%. Population by age groups is shown in Tab.2. The young population, 0 – 19 years, decreased by about 2,44% each year, the adult population, 20 – 64 years, decreased by 0,5% per year, while the elder population, 65 years and over, registered an average growth rhythm of 1,5% each year which leads to demographic ageing of Romanian population. Management & marketing 64 Table 1 Population by year Number of population Years Total Urban area Rural area July 1, 1994 22730622 12427612 10303010 July 1, 1995 22680951 12457195 10

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