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Innovation in the Australian construction industry

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  • 120200 Building
  • Economics


Microsoft Word - 4427.doc COVER SHEET Akintoye, Akintola S. and Skitmore, Martin R. (1993) Macro models of UK construction contract prices. Civil Engineering Systems 10(4):pp. 279-299. Copyright 1993 Taylor & Francis. Accessed from: MACRO MODELS OF UK CONSTRUCTION CONTRACT PRICES Paper prepared for Civil Engineering Systems by Dr S A Akintoye Department of Building and Surveying Glasgow Polytechnic Glasgow, Scotland and Prof R M Skitmore Department of Surveying University of Salford Salford M5 4WT, England Telephone: 061 745 5000 February, 1993 Macro models of UK construction contract prices Akintola Akintoye and Martin Skitmore This paper describes the derivation of macro construction contract price models that are based on the economic theory of demand and supply using OLS multiple regression analysis. A structural equation model is presented which offers a structural explanation of the movements in the construction tender price index. Leading indicators of contract prices (in real terms) produced by the structural equations were unemployment level, real interest rate, manufacturing profitability, number of registered construction firms, building cost index, construction productivity and construction work stoppages. The equation produced an adjusted R2 of 0.97 for deflated data with minimal serial autocorrelation. A predictive reduced-form model is also developed that utilises simultaneous equation models comprising construction demand, supply and equilibrium models. Keywords: Construction contract price; statistical models; construction demand; construction supply 2 Macro models of UK construction prices Introduction The construction industry is regarded as being highly competitive (eg., Runeson and Bennett [19]). According to

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