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An epidemic model to evaluate the homogeneous mixing assumption

Authors
Journal
Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation
1007-5704
Publisher
Elsevier
Volume
19
Issue
11
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1016/j.cnsns.2014.01.029
Keywords
  • Bifurcation
  • Epidemiology
  • Gonorrhea
  • Hepatitis C Virus
  • Human Immunodeficiency Virus
  • Obesity
Disciplines
  • Mathematics
  • Medicine

Abstract

Abstract Many epidemic models are written in terms of ordinary differential equations (ODE). This approach relies on the homogeneous mixing assumption; that is, the topological structure of the contact network established by the individuals of the host population is not relevant to predict the spread of a pathogen in this population. Here, we propose an epidemic model based on ODE to study the propagation of contagious diseases conferring no immunity. The state variables of this model are the percentages of susceptible individuals, infectious individuals and empty space. We show that this dynamical system can experience transcritical and Hopf bifurcations. Then, we employ this model to evaluate the validity of the homogeneous mixing assumption by using real data related to the transmission of gonorrhea, hepatitis C virus, human immunodeficiency virus, and obesity.

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