Affordable Access

Publisher Website

The basic reproductive number of Ebola and the effects of public health measures: the cases of Congo and Uganda

Journal of Theoretical Biology
Publication Date
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2004.03.006
  • Ebola
  • Reproductive Number
  • Congo
  • Uganda
  • Outbreak
  • Interventions
  • Education
  • Medicine


Abstract Despite improved control measures, Ebola remains a serious public health risk in African regions where recurrent outbreaks have been observed since the initial epidemic in 1976. Using epidemic modeling and data from two well-documented Ebola outbreaks (Congo 1995 and Uganda 2000), we estimate the number of secondary cases generated by an index case in the absence of control interventions ( R 0). Our estimate of R 0 is 1.83 ( sd 0.06) for Congo (1995) and 1.34 ( sd 0.03) for Uganda (2000). We model the course of the outbreaks via an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) epidemic model that includes a smooth transition in the transmission rate after control interventions are put in place. We perform an uncertainty analysis of the basic reproductive number R 0 to quantify its sensitivity to other disease-related parameters. We also analyse the sensitivity of the final epidemic size to the time interventions begin and provide a distribution for the final epidemic size. The control measures implemented during these two outbreaks (including education and contact tracing followed by quarantine) reduce the final epidemic size by a factor of 2 relative the final size with a 2-week delay in their implementation.

There are no comments yet on this publication. Be the first to share your thoughts.


Seen <100 times

More articles like this

The basic reproductive number of Ebola and the eff...

on Journal of Theoretical Biology Jul 07, 2004

HIV, Ebola virus and public health measures.

on American family physician May 15, 1996

Ebola virus and HIV: a contrast in public health m...

on American family physician Nov 01, 1995

[Basic problems in public health measures].

on Nihon Ishikai zasshi. Journal... Aug 15, 1970
More articles like this..