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A highly resolved modeling technique to simulate residential power demand

Authors
Journal
Applied Energy
0306-2619
Publisher
Elsevier
Volume
107
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.02.057
Keywords
  • Energy Demand Modeling
  • Household Power Demand
  • Occupant Behavior
  • Residential Electricity Use
  • Heterogeneous Markov Chain
  • Hvac Modeling
Disciplines
  • Engineering

Abstract

Abstract This paper presents a model to simulate the electricity demand of a single household consisting of multiple individuals. The total consumption is divided into four main categories, namely cold appliances, heating, ventilation, and air conditioning, lighting, and energy consumed by household members’ activities. The first three components are modeled using engineering physically-based models, while the activity patterns of individuals are modeled using a heterogeneous Markov chain. Using data collected by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, a case study for an average American household is developed. The data are used to conduct an in-sample validation of the modeled activities and a rigorous statistical validation of the predicted electricity demand against metered data is provided. The results show highly realistic patterns that capture annual and diurnal variations, load fluctuations, and diversity between household configuration, location, and size.

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