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A refined parametric model for short term load forecasting

Authors
Journal
International Journal of Forecasting
0169-2070
Publisher
Elsevier
Volume
30
Issue
2
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.07.003
Keywords
  • Electricity
  • Regression
  • Forecasting Competitions
  • Combining Forecasts
  • Demand Forecasting

Abstract

Abstract We present a refined parametric model for forecasting electricity demand which performed particularly well in the recent Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom 2012). We begin by motivating and presenting a simple parametric model, treating the electricity demand as a function of the temperature and day of the data. We then set out a series of refinements of the model, explaining the rationale for each, and using the competition scores to demonstrate that each successive refinement step increases the accuracy of the model’s predictions. These refinements include combining models from multiple weather stations, removing outliers from the historical data, and special treatments of public holidays.

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