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Rational investment behaviour and seasonality in early modern grain prices



We analyse a newly constructed data set of monthly prices for wheat and rye in Nuremberg (1490 1855) to address the issue whether models of rational investment behaviour provide an adequate description of grain markets and grain storage in early modern Europe. Based on the empirical evidence presented here we conclude that the case for well functioning arbitrage in the market for grain in Nuremberg is quite weak. This can only partly be explained by the institutional background.

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