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Address: job insecurity and technology

  • Economics


Technology in Growth Theory TECHNOLOGY IN GROWTH THEORY Dale W. Jorgenson* The early 1970s marked the emergence of a rare professional con- sensus on economic growth, articulated in two strikingly dissimilar books. Simon Kuznets, the greatest of twentieth century empirical econ- omists, summarized his decades of research in Economic Growth of Nations (1971). The enormous impact of this research was recognized in the same year by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences in awarding the third Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel to Kuznets "for his empirically founded interpretation of economic growth which has led to new and deepened insight into the economic and social structure and process of development" (Assar Lindbeck 1992, p. 79). Robert Solow’s book Growth Theory (1970), modestly subtitled "An Exposition," contained his 1969 Radcliffe Lectures at the University of Warwick. In these lectures Solow also summarized decades of research, initiated by the theoretical work of Roy Harrod (1939) and Evsey Domar (1946). Solow’s seminal role in this research, beginning with his brilliant and pathbreaking essay of 1956, "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," was recognized, simply and elegantly, by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences in awarding Solow the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1987 "for his contributions to the theory of economic growth" (Karl-Goran Maler 1992, p. 191). *Frederic Eaton Abbe Professor of Economics, Harvard University. The author has benefited greatly from the help of a colleague, Zvi Griliches, in exploring the recent empirical literature on investment in new technology. Susanto Basu and Charles Jones, as well as Griliches, have kindly provided access to unpublished material. Financial support was provided by the Program on Technology and Economic Policy of Harvard University. Responsibility for any remaining deficiencies rests solely with the author. 46 Dale W. Jorgenson After a quarter of a century, the consensus on

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