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Scenario analysis using Bayesian networks: A case study in energy sector

Authors
Journal
Knowledge-Based Systems
0950-7051
Publisher
Elsevier
Publication Date
Volume
23
Issue
3
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1016/j.knosys.2010.01.009
Keywords
  • Bayesian Networks
  • Causal Maps
  • Scenario Analysis
  • Energy Investments
Disciplines
  • Ecology

Abstract

Abstract This paper provides a general overview of creating scenarios for energy policies using Bayesian Network (BN) models. BN is a useful tool to analyze the complex structures, which allows observation of the current structure and basic consequences of any strategic change. This research will propose a decision model that will support the researchers in forecasting and scenario analysis fields. The proposed model will be implemented in a case study for Turkey. The choice of the case is based on complexities of a renewable energy resource rich country. Turkey is a heavy energy importer discussing new investments. Domestic resources could be evaluated under different scenarios aiming the sustainability. Achievements of this study will open a new vision for the decision makers in energy sector.

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