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Changes in seismic hazard due to large earthquakes estimated from coulomb failure function in japan

Department of Geography, Tokyo Metropolitan University
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  • Static Stress Change
  • Coulomb Failure Function
  • Stress Drop
  • Earth Science
  • Physics


I show several examples of the relation between static stress changes due to historical large earthquakes in Japan and estimated stress drop for active faults by the use of the Coulomb-Navier failure criterion. Initial analysis supports the idea that the Coulomb failure function (⊿CFF) plays a role of occurrence of subsequent moderate to large earthquakes in the vicinity of the source earthquake. However in general, the magnitude of ⊿CFF on pre-existing active fault is small compared to its estimated stress drop (almost less than 1%), it is considered that the effect of the static stress change on a pre-existing active fault whether moderate to larger earthquake would be induced or not varies depending on how much annual strain has been accumulated in its earthquake cycle since last event. Therefore, future improvements from paleoearthquake and geophysical studies, which enable us to obtain the recurrence intervals, elapsed time, and subsurface structure, are necessary for ⊿CFF calculation.

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