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A geodemographic profiler for high offender propensity areas in the city of Tshwane, South Africa

Authors
Disciplines
  • Criminology
  • Economics

Abstract

Postapartheid South Africa has been plagued by an increase in crime across all categories. While a significant amount of criminological research has been undertaken in the country, the spatial analysis of crime and offenders, a basic prerequisite for a functional crime management strategy, has not been adequately addressed at a sufficiently fine scale of aggregation. This paper reports on the geodemographic development of offender risk profiles for neighbourhoods in the City of Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality in South Africa. Geodemographics is a relatively new geo-analytical technique that is being increasingly used in policing applications to complement law enforcement techniques and provide further insight into offenders and their offences. Findings of the study indicate that neighbourhoods at a high risk for offender development are amongst the most socially and economically deprived in the municipality and are disproportionately occupied by black Africans. The results highlight a need to reassess the current law enforcement approach to crime reduction in the country and return to the crime prevention initiatives that were part of the National Crime Prevention Strategy of the 1990s.

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