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Fiscal Adjustment in Pakistan: Some Simulation Results

  • Economics


Pakistan has experienced high fiscal deficits for over two decades. The accumulation of debt over this period implies that a substantial adjustment will be required to attain a sustainable fiscal position over the medium term. By simulating an estimated macroeconomic model for Pakistan, this paper compares the likely macroeconomic consequences of achieving fiscal adjustment alternatively through reductions in public consumption or public investment or through increasing tax receipts. The most favorable medium-term growth and inflation outcomes are associated with reduced public consumption; the least favorable correspond to reduced public investment. Revenue increases occupy an intermediate position.

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