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A model for disruptive technology forecasting in strategic regional economic development

Authors
Journal
Technological Forecasting and Social Change
0040-1625
Publisher
Elsevier
Publication Date
Volume
74
Issue
9
Identifiers
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2006.12.005
Disciplines
  • Economics
  • Mathematics
  • Physics

Abstract

Abstract As regions look to increase their economic development activities, technology-based developments and the penchant for long-term developments in disruptive technologies like nanotechnology become an important part of the options available to these regions. There are typically many technologies and therefore product areas that the region, however, can further develop by investing resources in these areas. At the same time, other regions in the world are considering the same areas of great growth and potential financial and social returns. This paper proposes a model that analyzes several important factors that can lead to success in analyzing these factors promoting the idea that policy makers should analyze the situation from different perspectives to reach justifiable decisions. These factors include the research capabilities of the region, its commercialization and manufacturing capabilities and the markets on which they should focus. Several mathematical models are then presented to help in that endeavor.

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