Species distribution models (SDMs) are becoming an important tool for marine conservation and management. Yet while there is an increasing diversity and volume of marine biodiversity data for training SDMs, little practical guidance is available on how to leverage distinct data types to build robust models. We explored the effect of different data ...
Published in Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology
Acciones para la conservación basadas en pronósticos Resumen Los eventos climáticos extremos representan una amenaza inmediata para la biodiversidad, pero las estrategias actuales de conservación tienen limitantes. Los avances en los pronósticos meteorológicos y la innovación en el sector humanitario proporcionan una solución posible: las acciones ...
Published in Global change biology
Near-term freshwater forecasts, defined as sub-daily to decadal future predictions of a freshwater variable with quantified uncertainty, are urgently needed to improve water quality management as freshwater ecosystems exhibit greater variability due to global change. Shifting baselines in freshwater ecosystems due to land use and climate change pre...
Published in AoB PLANTS
Plant-population recovery across large disturbance areas is often seed-limited. An understanding of seed dispersal patterns is fundamental for determining natural-regeneration potential. However, forecasting seed dispersal rates across heterogeneous landscapes remains a challenge. Our objectives were to determine (i) the landscape patterning of pos...
Published in Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America
As climate and land use increase the variability of many ecosystems, forecasts of ecological variables are needed to inform management and use of ecosystem services. In particular, forecasts of phytoplankton would be especially useful for drinking water management, as phytoplankton populations are exhibiting greater fluctuations due to human activi...
The potential for forecasting the dynamics of ecological systems is currently unclear, with contrasting opinions regarding its feasibility due to ecological complexity. To investigate forecast skill within and across systems, we monitored a microbial system exposed to either constant or fluctuating temperatures in a 5-month-long laboratory experime...
Published in Ecology letters
The potential for forecasting the dynamics of ecological systems is currently unclear, with contrasting opinions regarding its feasibility due to ecological complexity. To investigate forecast skill within and across systems, we monitored a microbial system exposed to either constant or fluctuating temperatures in a 5-month-long laboratory experime...
Published in Restoration ecology
River temperatures are expected to increase this century harming species requiring cold-water habitat unless restoration activities protect or improve habitat availability. Local shading by riparian vegetation can cool water temperatures, but uncertainty exists over the scaling of this local effect to larger spatial extents. We evaluate this issue ...
Published in Ecology
Monitoring technologies now provide real-time animal location information, which opens up the possibility of developing forecasting systems to fuse these data with movement models to predict future trajectories. State-space modeling approaches are well established for retrospective location estimation and behavioral inference through state and para...
Published in Proceedings. Biological sciences
Ongoing climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. As abiotic tolerances and dispersal abilities vary, species-specific responses have the potential to further amplify or ameliorate the ensuing impacts on species assemblages. Here, we investigate the effects of climate change on species distributions across non-marine birds, quantifying its ...
