Cause of death data provides additional insight on the future trends of mortality, as well as provide valuable information for governments and insurance companies. Models that fit and forecast by cause of death come across several methodological problems, one of them being the inconsistency between individual estimation and forecast of mortality per...
In population and actuarial sciences, time-trends of summary measures (such as life expectancy or the average number of children per woman) are easy to interpret and predict. Most summary measures are nonlinear functions of the vital rates, the key variable we usually want to estimate and forecast. Furthermore smooth outcomes of future age-specific...
The Lee-Carter model is an elegant and powerful methodology to model and forecast mortality based on a log-bilinear form for the hazard function. We propose a novel extension of the model that overcomes its drawback of a fixed age-specific rate of mortality improvements. This new approach improves goodness-of-fit and offers an innovative perspectiv...
En Afrique subsaharienne, peu de données existent pour étudier la mortalité des personnes âgées. Ainsi, les effets à long terme de la vie reproductive sur la mortalité des femmes africaines sont peu connus. Pour cette étude, nous nous intéressons aux différences de mortalité parmi les femmes âgées entre 50 et 70 ans et suivies entre 1985 et 2011 da...
