This study stems from a participatory foresight exercise conducted in nine Mediterranean, Baltic, Nordic and Eastern European regions, aiming to strengthen the role of small farms and small food businesses in ensuring food security. A wide range of stakeholders participated by attending workshops. They represented farmers’ organisations, food busin...
The introduction of the Lee–Carter (LC) method marked a breakthrough in mortality forecasting, providing a simple yet powerful data-driven stochastic approach. The method has the merit of capturing the dynamics of mortality change by a single time index that is almost invariably linear. This thirtieth anniversary review of its 1992 publication exam...
А forecast of the dynamics of natural disasters and their impact on forest ecosystems is required for effective eliminating the consequences of natural disasters in the forest fund and for improving the quality of management decisions, Such a forecast can be obtained using predictive analytics methods based on the analysis of statistical data of pa...
Cause of death data provides additional insight on the future trends of mortality, as well as provide valuable information for governments and insurance companies. Models that fit and forecast by cause of death come across several methodological problems, one of them being the inconsistency between individual estimation and forecast of mortality per...
This paper presents the cross-regional comparative analysis of a participatory scenario planning exercise conducted in 13 regions of 13 countries in both Europe and Africa as part of the H2020 research project SALSA “Small farms, small food business and sustainable food security”. The objective of the analysis is threefold: (i) to better understand...
This paper presents the solutions on renewable energy forecasting proposed by the Horizon2020 Project Smart4RES. The ambition of the project is twofold: (1) increase substantially the performance of short-term forecasting models of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) production and associated weather forecasting and (2) optimize decisions subject to RES...
Mortality forecasting has crucial implications for insurance and pension policies. A large amount of literature has proposed models to forecast mortality using cross-sectional (period) data instead of longitudinal (cohort) data. As a consequence, decisions are generally based on period life tables and summary measures such as period life expectancy...
Branch and regional prioritization of the forest sector is a necessary condition for its development and compatibility growth. It allows toplan and forecast the forest management activities and their allocation across the country. Strategic planning and forecasting should use the following methodology. Firstly, it is necessary to rank the priority ...
The prediction of human longevity levels in the future by direct forecasting of life expectancy offers numerous advantages, compared to methods based on extrapolation of age-specific death rates. However, the reconstruction of accurate life tables starting from a given level of life expectancy at birth, or any other age, is not straightforward. Mod...
The vulnerability of the French Riviera territories to hydro-meteorological hazards has been highlighted by the flash flood of the 3rd of October 2015, which had catastrophic consequences. In the view of the speed and violence of these phenomena, the development of warning systems able to provide real-time flood mapping should make it possible to l...
