Published in European journal of operational research
In response to the recent outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 virus governments have aimed to reduce the virus's spread through, inter alia, non-pharmaceutical intervention. We address the question when such measures should be implemented and, once implemented, when to remove them. These issues are viewed through a real-options lens and we develop an SIRD-l...
Published in European journal of operational research
Post COVID-19 vaccine development, nations are now getting ready to face another challenge: how to effectively distribute vaccines amongst the masses to quickly achieve herd immunity against the infection. According to some experts, herd immunity for COVID-19 can be achieved by inoculating 67% of the population. India may find it difficult to achie...
Published in European journal of operational research
In late 2019 a new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) emerged, causing a global pandemic within only a few weeks. A crucial factor in the public health response to pandemics is achieving a short turnaround time between a potential case becoming known, specimen collection and availability of a test result. In this article we address a logistics problem ...
Published in European journal of operational research
A critical operations management problem in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is cognizance of (a) the number of all carriers at large (CaL) conveying the SARS-CoV-2, including asymptomatic ones and (b) the infection rate (IR). Both are random and unobservable, affecting the spread of the disease, patient arrivals to health care units (HCUs) and the nu...
Published in European journal of operational research
This paper proposes control strategies to allocate COVID-19 patients to screening facilities, health facilities, and quarantine facilities for minimizing the spread of the virus by these patients. To calculate the transmission rate, we propose a function that accounts for contact rate, duration of the contact, age structure of the population, susce...
Published in Journal of econometrics
The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the most pressing issues at present. A question which is particularly important for governments and policy makers is the following: Does the virus spread in the same way in different countries? Or are there significant differences in the development of the epidemic? In this paper, we devise new inference methods that...
Published in International journal of aging & human development
This analysis investigates how age, race/ethnicity, and geographic location contributed to vaccine hesitancy in a sample of 645 New York City (NYC) Transport Workers Union (TWU), Local 100 members surveyed in August 2020. Union members ages 50+ were 46% less likely to be vaccine hesitant than their younger counterparts (OR 0.64; 95% CI 0.42, 0.97)....
Published in European journal of operational research
This article presents an overview of methods developed for the modeling and control of local coronavirus outbreaks. The article reviews early transmission dynamics featuring exponential growth in infections, and links this to a renewal epidemic model where the current incidence of infection depends upon the expected value of incidence randomly lagg...
Published in European journal of operational research
The COVID-19 pandemic has placed forecasting models at the forefront of health policy making. Predictions of mortality, cases and hospitalisations help governments meet planning and resource allocation challenges. In this paper, we consider the weekly forecasting of the cumulative mortality due to COVID-19 at the national and state level in the U.S...
Published in Journal of interpersonal violence
With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and the implementation of stay-at-home orders in March 2020, experts warned of the possible threat of increased interpersonal violence among individuals isolated with abusers. Researchers have sought to understand how the pandemic impacted victims primarily through the analysis of administrative data sources,...
