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Domain-driven models yield better predictions at lower cost than reservoir computers in Lorenz systems

Published in Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences

Recent advances in computing algorithms and hardware have rekindled interest in developing high-accuracy, low-cost surrogate models for simulating physical systems. The idea is to replace expensive numerical integration of complex coupled partial differential equations at fine time scales performed on supercomputers, with machine-learned surrogates...

Climbing down Charney's ladder: Machine Learning and the post-Dennard era of computational climate science

The advent of digital computing in the 1950s sparked a revolution in the science of weather and climate. Meteorology, long based on extrapolating patterns in space and time, gave way to computational methods in a decade of advances in numerical weather forecasting. Those same methods also gave rise to computational climate science, studying the beh...

A framework for probabilistic weather forecast post-processing across models and lead times using machine learning

Published in Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences

Forecasting the weather is an increasingly data-intensive exercise. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are becoming more complex, with higher resolutions, and there are increasing numbers of different models in operation. While the forecasting skill of NWP models continues to improve, the number and complexity of these models poses a new cha...

Towards implementing artificial intelligence post-processing in weather and climate: proposed actions from the Oxford 20...

Published in Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences

The most mature aspect of applying artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML) to problems in the atmospheric sciences is likely post-processing of model output. This article provides some history and current state of the science of post-processing with AI for weather and climate models. Deriving from the discussion at the 2019 Oxford worksh...

Can deep learning beat numerical weather prediction?

Published in Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences

The recent hype about artificial intelligence has sparked renewed interest in applying the successful deep learning (DL) methods for image recognition, speech recognition, robotics, strategic games and other application areas to the field of meteorology. There is some evidence that better weather forecasts can be produced by introducing big data mi...

Predicting atmospheric optical properties for radiative transfer computations using neural networks

Published in Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences

The radiative transfer equations are well known, but radiation parametrizations in atmospheric models are computationally expensive. A promising tool for accelerating parametrizations is the use of machine learning techniques. In this study, we develop a machine learning-based parametrization for the gaseous optical properties by training neural ne...

The earthquake cycle in the dry lower continental crust: insights from two deeply exhumed terranes (Musgrave Ranges, Aus...

Published in Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences

This paper discusses the results of field-based geological investigations of exhumed rocks exposed in the Musgrave Ranges (Central Australia) and in Nusfjord (Lofoten, Norway) that preserve evidence for lower continental crustal earthquakes with focal depths of approximately 25–40 km. These studies have established that deformation of the dry lower...

What’s down there? The structures, materials and environment of deep-seated slow slip and tremor

Published in Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences

Deep-seated slow slip and tremor (SST), including slow slip events, episodic tremor and slip, and low-frequency earthquakes, occur downdip of the seismogenic zone of numerous subduction megathrusts and plate boundary strike-slip faults. These events represent a fascinating and perplexing mode of fault failure that has greatly broadened our view of ...