Published in Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy
By extending the extant costly-lottery models of dyadic war to three-party bargaining scenarios, we offer rationalist explanations for two-front war, where a state at the center is fought by two enemies at opposing peripheries. We found that even though private information exists only in one front, war can break out in both fronts. Because the war ...
Published in Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy
Published in Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy
The United States has traditionally defined national security in the context of military threats and addressed them through military spending. This article considers whether the United States will rethink this mindset following the disruption of the Covid19 pandemic, during which a non-military actor has inflicted widespread harm. The author argues...
Published in Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy
One of the main ways we try to understand the COVID-19 pandemic is through time series cross section counts of cases and deaths. Observational studies based on these kinds of data have concrete and well known methodological issues that suggest significant caution for both consumers and produces of COVID-19 knowledge. We briefly enumerate some of th...
Published in Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy
This article examines the impact and repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic on patterns of armed conflict around the world. It argues that there are two main ways in which the pandemic is likely to fuel, rather than mitigate, conflict and engender further violence in conflict-prone countries: (1) the exacerbating effect of COVID-19 on the underlyin...
Published in Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy
We present a non-technical assessment of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on individual level conflict behavior in the household, workplace, and societal interactions in the post-COVID era. We predict that there will be an increase in the intra-household conflict including domestic violence; and the divorce rate will rise. Within workplaces, th...
Published in Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy
Caruso, R. 2020. “What Post COVID-19? ‹‹Avoiding a 21st Century General Crisis››.” Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy 26 (2). May 2020 provides a prescription for avoiding a general global crisis in the Post-Covid-19 era via the revitalization of Post-WWII era international organizations. Here we examine the implications of contribut...
Published in Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy
Epidemics create risks of social unrest. The great plagues of the past show that social tensions, accumulated over the epidemic and before, often erupted in serious uprisings in the years after the epidemic. Based on historical evidence, we predict that the protests inherited from the pre-COVID-19 period should be crowded out by epidemic-related un...
Published in Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy
Who are the colleagues participating when asked to complete expert surveys? This research note investigates which individuals’ characteristics associate with positive responses. Drawing on an expert survey dedicated to post-conflict trials, we collect data on various attributes of both respondents and non-respondents such as their age, sex, academi...
Published in Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy
The COVID-19 pandemic entails a medium- and long-run risk of heightened political conflict. In this short essay we distinguish four major consequences of COVID-19 that may fuel social tensions and political violence, namely i) spiking poverty, ii) education under stress, iii) potential for repression, and iv) reduced inter-dependence. After discuss...
