AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona, Spain
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A new metric of consensus for Likert-type questionnaires: An application to forecast the unemployment rate using the deg...
Published in 39th International Symposium on Forecasting
In this study we present a metric of consensus for Likert-type scales. The statistic gives the level of agreement obtained as the percentage of consensus among respondents. The proposed analytical framework allows to construct a positional indicator that gives the degree of agreement for each item and for any given number of reply options. In order...
Country-specific machine-learning sentiment indicators
We apply the two-step machine-learning method proposed by Claveria et al. (2020) to generate country-specific sentiment indicators that provide estimates of year-on-year GDP growth rates. In the first step, by means of genetic programming, business and consumer expectations are evolved to derive sentiment indicators for 19 European economies. In th...
Unemployment Uncertainty after the Irruption of COVID-19
This paper examines the evolution of consumer uncertainty about unemployment one year after the irruption of the covid-19 pandemic in European countries. Since uncertainty is not directly observable, we use two alternative methods to directly approximate it. Both approaches are based on qualitative expectations elicited form the consumer survey con...
Modelling the dynamic interaction between economic uncertainty, growth, unemployment and suicide
Published in IREA Working Papers
Economic uncertainty is a driver of the business cycle. In a recent study, Claveria (2022) used a fixed-effects model to assess the impact of uncertainty on suicide rates worldwide. Using that same panel, in which global economic uncertainty is linked to the evolution of the suicide rates in 183 countries between 2000 and 2019, this work evaluates ...
The nexus between variable renewable energy, economy and climate: Evidence from European countries by means of explorato...
Published in IREA Working Papers
We propose a new approach for the visual inspection of interactions between several variables related to the wind and solar energy sector, and a set of socioeconomic variables and natural factors that may be affecting the sector. Focusing on fifteen European countries in the period from 2007 to 2019, we use Categorical Principal Component Analysis ...
Disagreement on expectations: firms versus consumers
Published in SN Business & Economics
This paper evaluates the dynamic response of economic activity to shocks in agents' perception of uncertainty. The study focuses on the comparison between manufac-turers' and consumers' perception of economic uncertainty, gauged by a geometric discrepancy indicator to quantify the proportion of disagreement in eleven European countries and the Euro...
Disagreement on expectations: firms versus consumers
Published in SN Business & Economics
This paper evaluates the dynamic response of economic activity to shocks in agents' perception of uncertainty. The study focuses on the comparison between manufac-turers' and consumers' perception of economic uncertainty, gauged by a geometric discrepancy indicator to quantify the proportion of disagreement in eleven European countries and the Euro...
